Aysha Bibi, Sobia Naheed, Irum Raza, Nisar Khan
Department of Genetics, Hazara University Mansehra, Pakistan
Social Sciences Research Institute, NARC, Islamabad, Pakistan
Key words: Rice, area, production, forecast, quadratic trend model, Khyber Pakhtun Khwa.
The current study was intended to analyze the trends of area and production for rice in Khyber Pakhtun Khwa by using the past trends and to estimate future area and production for coming ten years. The conclusion of the study is foundation on rice area and yield time series data pertaining the years (1981-82 to 2011-12). Three models of trend analysis were applied but most appropriate model for trend analysis of the current study was quadratic trend model. The model was preferred on the basis of smallest values of accuracy measures (MAPE, MAD and MSD). The forecast values of rice area and production would be 52.86, 51.90, 50.91, 49.89, 48.84, 47.77, 46.66, 45.53, 44.36 & 43.17 thousands ha and 100.15, 96.83, 93.30, 89.58, 85.66, 81.53, 77.21, 72.69, 67.96 & 63.04 kgs per hectare respectively for the years 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 & 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 & 2022. Predicted values show that there is decreasing trend in production of rice in Khyber Pakhton Khwa, however expected values of area under this crop show decreasing trend. This situation is alarming for poor people of Khyber Pakhtun Khwa, who can’t afford costly, based protein, carbohydrates, Fat, Calcium and Iron food.